Pai Gow Poker – beatable?

I did some recent testing on a standard Pai Gow poker play with 5% commission for the bank. The rules are clear on not playing a weaker hand, so this cannot be used to advantage. So the scenario was set at 20,000 chip value and tables ranging from 10 to 5,000.

It is possible to lose less than the 5% hold, but mainly works on how you play two pairs or full houses, nothing there to take you into the black against the bank. Next test was to see if a Martingale betting method would make any difference, you will already know the answer. It only takes 9 straight losses in a row to max out to a total cost of 10,110. If you are unlucky early on, you will bottom out in two bad runs.

Unless the dealers hand is marked on the back, there is no obvious advantage that can be taken. In summary, this appears to be a safe game for the house, but requires constant shuffling or single decks available on cue.

The possibility of card marking for the player or cold decking for either party would change the balance of the game. A player who swings their bet sizes to skew their averages on inspection could gain an advantage for comping, but at 5% this is not a strategy for their long term gain.